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Collaborative project: Forecast model for outbreaks of common voles (Microtus arvalis) - Subproject 1
Project
Project code: 2814203006
Contract period: 01.08.2007
- 31.07.2011
Budget: 220,775 Euro
Purpose of research: Experimental development
Population outbreaks of common voles can result in extreme damage to agriculture and forestry. The aim of this project was to develop a predictive model for the population dynamics of common voles to be integrated in a decision support system for farmers by providing information about the probability of common vole outbreaks in the near future. Existing datasets on population dynamics in common voles were located, digitalized and calibrated to standardised a mark-and-recapture method. The model was developed based on time series of common vole abundance and weather and validated. The model successfully predicts the risk of common vole outbreaks several months in advance for spring and autumn in the federal states Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt at the spatial scale of weather recording stations. Model results are poor for other German regions possibly due to differences in topography and soil properties and potentially other correlations between common vole abundance and weather. In Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt the model can help farmers to timely decide whether, where and when to take preventative measures to minimise the adverse effects of vole outbreaks. Forecast results for annual crops and perennial crops are available at the internet pages of Julius Kühn-Institute and proPlant GmbH.
Section overview
Subjects
- Crop Protection
- Computer science
Funding programme
Excutive institution
Institute for Plant Protection in Horticulture and Forests (JKI-GF)
