We use cookies on our website. Some are necessary for the operation of the website. You can also allow cookies for statistical purposes. You can adjust the data protection settings or agree to all cookies directly.
Data Protection Declaration
Imprint
Crop Yields of the North German Lowland under impact of Climate Change: Land of Plenty or Zone of Death?
Project
Project code: ZALF-906
Contract period: 15.05.2013
- 14.05.2016
Purpose of research: Inventory & Assessment
Production condition of field crops of the North German Lowlands will alter under impact of the predicted climate change. The increase of temperature and carbon dioxide partial pressure indicates that longer vegetation period and carbon dioxide fertilisation effect might lead on-the-fly to higher crop yields in the North German Lowlands.
However, climate will not only affect an increase of the means, but will have a wide range of effects especially for the variability and the abundance of extreme weather conditions like summer heat, drought, storms, or shifts in precipitation. Besides, obvious extreme events, like a hail storm, which can have a devastating effect on crop yield. All these conditions have a more or less severe impact on crop production. Furthermore, there are critical phases of crop production in which special environmental conditions might amplify the risk for the outcome of crop yield. This critical phases include stage of plant growth e.g. germination is susceptible to drought, or stages important to crop production like no machinability during seed or harvest as a result of high soil moisture. Generally, the risks for losses in crop yield or even crops shortfall are increasing.
Hence, a substantial and validated risk assessment is necessary. Further, it is reasonable to develop strategies and management techniques to counter these risks in crop production to grant a stable and adequate food supply. Such management techniques could be irrigation strategies, development of more stress resistant cultivars, or the development of new crop rotations to distribute risk of failure on more diverse field crops.
The aim of this study is to apply a process-based plant growth model to the North German Lowlands. This model shall comprise a validated risk assessment for future crop production, and practicable scenarios to encounter this risk.
The following working hypotheses are the basis for this study:
1. Crop yield variability of important field crops will amplify under impact of climate change. Though, the yield risk depends on specific properties of crop.
2. The stress for crops contributed by climate conditions depends on location and cultivation area. Stress will increase with climate change.
3. Crop production and crop yield can be adequately projected by process-based plant growth models for different climate scenarios.
4. The increase of risk for yield losses and or crop failures can be compensated by innovations in range of cultivation, management techniques, and crop rotation on the regional scale.
Section overview
Subjects
- Crop Production
- Climate Change
