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Model-based scenario analysis to optimize crop production for climate protection - DWD (ModOKlim)
Project
Project code: 2823KLI003
Contract period: 01.11.2023
- 31.10.2026
Budget: 225,545 Euro
Purpose of research: Inventory & Assessment
Keywords: crop production, diversified production, emissions, food security, climate change adaptation, climate protection, climate protection, modeling, forecast
Human-induced climate change threatens the stability of the planet's ecosystems in the long term, and thus also the stability of human society through scarcity of water, food and habitat. Agricultural food production in particular faces an uncertain future and there is a considerable need for information on suitable climate protection strategies. The overall objective of the project is to identify suitable management measures and operational strategies for optimising crop production in terms of climate protection. The ModOKlim project primarily pursues the following scientific objectives: (i) the reliable reproduction of spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural crop productivity in Germany over the past 30 years using agro-ecosystem models, (ii) the deterministic projection of yield prospects and associated GHG emissions of agricultural crops in Germany, (iii) scenario analysis using biophysical and economic models to assess the prospects of success of climate change mitigation strategies towards profitable, climate-adapted and species-rich cropping systems, and (iv) the integration of state-of-the-art science on probabilistic projections of extreme weather events into the projections of the deterministic models. As part of work package 1, a new data set based on the DWD core ensemble (17 model runs from the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is generated, which contains a spring drought corresponding to the observations of recent years. This data set serves as the input variable for all effect models used in the project. The soil moisture calculated on the basis of this data and other agro-meteorological parameters are examined for the occurrence of yield-relevant extreme values for various agricultural crops.
Section overview
Subjects
- Crop Production
- Resource management
- Climate Change
Funding programme
Excutive institution
Funding institution
Project management agencies
Associated projects: ModOKlim
- Model-based scenario analysis to optimise crop production for climate protection - ZALF
- ModOKlim - A1 Climate scenarios and thresholds for regional climate change mitigation strategies - Estimation of hail hazard in the past and the future - KIT
- Model-based scenario analysis for optimizing crop production for climate change mitigation - JKI
- Model-based scenario analysis to optimise crop production for climate protection - TI
