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Model-based scenario analysis for optimizing crop production for climate change mitigation - JKI (ModOKlim)
Project
Project code: 2823KLI005
Contract period: 01.11.2023
- 31.10.2026
Budget: 274,627 Euro
Purpose of research: Inventory & Assessment
Keywords: crop production, diversified production, emissions, food security, climate change adaptation, climate protection, climate protection, modeling, forecast
Man-made climate change is a long-term threat to the stability of the planet's ecosystems, and with it the stability of human society, through scarcity of water, food and living space. Agricultural food production in particular faces an uncertain future and there is a considerable need for information regarding suitable climate protection strategies. The overarching goal of the project is to identify suitable management measures and operational strategies to optimize plant production in terms of climate protection. The ModOKlim project primarily pursues the following scientific goals: (i) the reliable reproduction of spatial and temporal patterns of productivity of agricultural crops in Germany over the past 30 years with the help of agro-ecosystem models, (ii) the deterministic projection of yield prospects and associated GHG Emissions from agricultural crops in Germany, (iii) the scenario analysis using biophysical and economic models to assess the prospects of success of climate protection strategies in the direction of profitable, climate-adapted and species-rich cultivation systems and (iv) the integration of the current state of science with regard to the probabilistic projection of extreme weather events in the projections of the deterministic models. In its sub-project, the JKI is working on the model-based investigation of G x E x M interactions with a focus on GHG-optimized grain crop rotations and variety selection. It can be assumed that the increase in unfavorable weather conditions will have increasingly negative effects on crop development, yield formation and the demand-optimized supply of nutrients. Using climate projection data, various cultivation scenarios are being developed across Germany with the help of agroecosystem models, varying the types of variety, sowing window and nitrogen fertilizer strategy
Section overview
Subjects
- Crop Production
- Resource management
- Climate Change
Funding programme
Excutive institution
Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants – Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)
Funding institution
Project management agencies
Associated projects: ModOKlim
- Model-based scenario analysis to optimise crop production for climate protection - ZALF
- Model-based scenario analysis to optimize crop production for climate protection - DWD
- ModOKlim - A1 Climate scenarios and thresholds for regional climate change mitigation strategies - Estimation of hail hazard in the past and the future - KIT
- Model-based scenario analysis to optimise crop production for climate protection - TI
