We use cookies on our website. Some are necessary for the operation of the website. You can also allow cookies for statistical purposes. You can adjust the data protection settings or agree to all cookies directly.
Data Protection Declaration
Imprint
DSS-RiskMan - Decision support for the allocation and limitation of risks arising from climate change in forestry
Project
Project code: 28WB401501
Contract period: 01.12.2013
- 30.11.2017
Budget: 1,191,607 Euro
Purpose of research: Applied research
Natural disturbances caused by storms, drought or insect infestation are an integral element of forest ecosystems. For forestry, these disturbances represent risks because, in the event of their occurrence, they can constrain or even thoroughly inhibit the achievement of forest functions. Risk reduction opportunities, for example through the site-specific selection of suitable tree species for planting, are already being considered in the silvicultural guidelines outlined by the German states. Yet these guidelines assume constant site conditions over time. In the face of climate change, however, it is assumed that site conditions will change within a production period, and that natural disturbances in forest ecosystems will increase such that the information commonly used in forest management planning needs to be supplemented by dynamic risk prognoses and adaptation strategies derived from models.
Therefore, the aim of the project DSS-RiskMan is to develop an information and decision support system, ac-cessible via the internet, for the estimation of risks and for the adaptation of forest management at the level of forest stands or site units. In forestry, a target-oriented risk management requires detailed knowledge of the dif-ferent risks associated with each tree species, which can then be combined to obtain tree species-specific risk profiles. As new environmental influences will be confronted in the future, and these will differ fundamentally from those of the past in their interaction and dynamics, the local experiences of the past can no longer be used to derive management strategies for the future. Complex interdependencies among environmental influences should therefore be determined by quantitatively modelling the vectors of the most important specific risks and then, with the aid of a survival model, combining the individual risks to obtain an overall risk by site and by stand. This information forms the core of the decision support model strived for, with which the expected risks for a given site can be assessed. This model would be effective both in the long-term planning process in the case of tree species selection as well as in medium-term planning of the direction of forest development, from stand establishment through to the harvest. In this way it would assist in the adaptation of forests to climate change. It would also serve climate protection by avoiding or limiting CO2-release arising from a calamity. In forest man-agement, actual decision support would be provided by digital risk maps and tree species suitability maps based on the risk profiles modelled.
In view of the existing database, the system is initially being developed for north Germany. However, the methods applied will enable a stepwise expansion to other regions in Germany.
Section overview
Subjects
- Forestry
- Climate Change
- Computer science
