Capability of Future Markets for Price Hedging in Dairy Markets
Project code: TI-MA-08-PID1765
Contract period: 01.07.2016 - 31.01.2017
Purpose of research: Inventory & Assessment
Volatile dairy prices and recurring market cirsis are a new important challenge for the sector. Up-to-date market signals could help in early understanding of future market developments. Commodity future markets could be a instrument of risk management. These markets get most importmant, if price risks should be hedged. Prices of commodity future markets are a powerful instrument in detecting future market developments. But do prices of commodity future marktes satisfy this requirement, if participation is low? The research project address this central question: Do prices significantly correlate on spot and future markets - even though participation (liquidity) is low? And therefore, do producer prices follow commodity futures prices movements? Between the milk producer price and the prices for butter, skimmed milk powder and whey powder traded at the Commodity Futures Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig price correlation is analysed with econometric methods. If there exists a statistical significant correlation between these time series, then price movements at the EEX could be used as indicators for future market devlopments. Even though participation (liquidity) might be low. Thus, milk producers would be better able to dispose production decisions with more reliable informations.