Collaborative project: Proactive phytosanitary risk analysis through modelling and monitoring: Adaptation to long-term risks caused by climate sensitive plant pests - subproject 2 (ProgRAMM)
Project code: 281B204616
Contract period: 15.08.2018 - 14.01.2021
Budget: 120,122 Euro
Purpose of research: Applied research
Keywords: climate (climate relevance, climate protection, climate change), invasive species, digital world, resource protection, resource efficiency, monitoring
In the joint project ProgRAMM, the partners JKI, LTZ and PIK develop a generic species distribution modelling framework for the assessment of phytosanitary risks to crops from climate-sensitive plant pests (KSO). This will be supported by the establishment of a monitoring system for KSO in Germany. KSO are plant pests for which a significant change in risk potential is expected as a result of climate change. The input parameters for the model are weather data, both current and from climate projections, and host plant availability. Presently, there are no methods or techniques available to scientifically assess the future distribution of KSO and its associated risks to urge the need for preventive phytosanitary measures. The development of a standardised procedure to identify long-term risks from KSO will contribute to securing a sustainable crop production in Germany. The monitoring study gathers information concerning the distribution of invasive species already introduced and/or established to highlight particularly sensitive regions for targeted monitoring of KSO. This data will also be used for the parameterisation and validation of the models. The results and the model elements will be made available to interested users through an interactive online platform. The Julius Kühn Institute is represented by the ‚Institute for National and International Plant Health‘ (AG) and the ‚Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment‘ (SF).